Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Packaged Foods · NYSE
Current Price
$14.94
Intrinsic Value
$16.44
+9.2% margin of safety
What Is Conagra Brands, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) at $16.44 per share, compared with a market price of $14.94, a margin of safety of +9.2%. The base case assumes -0.4% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $11.79 to $21.95. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Undervalued?
At $14.94, CAG trades about 9.2% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Recognition and Loyalty
Conagra owns well-established brands like Healthy Choice and Slim Jim, fostering consumer trust and repeat purchases. This brand equity translates into pricing power.
↑Distribution Network Scale
Extensive relationships with retailers and a vast distribution network create significant barriers to entry for smaller competitors. This scale ensures broad product availability.
↑Product Portfolio Diversification
A wide array of products across different food categories reduces reliance on any single item. This diversification provides stability against category-specific downturns.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓High Dividend Payout Ratio
The company's high dividend yield may be unsustainable given slowing growth and debt, potentially leading to a dividend cut. This could significantly impact investor sentiment.
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in the cost of key ingredients like eggs can impact profitability. While egg prices have fallen, future volatility remains a concern.
↓Earnings Miss Potential
Analysts anticipate a decline in earnings, suggesting potential operational challenges or an inability to meet market expectations. This indicates pressure on financial performance.
Base case
CAG base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$16.44
Margin of safety
+9.2%
Expected annual return
+1.9%
Base case assumptions: -0.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 7x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CAG valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Conagra Brands, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CAGCompany Overview
Conagra Brands, Inc., a prominent manufacturer of packaged food products, conducts its business across North America through its various subsidiary companies. The firm organizes its extensive operations into four distinct segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks division primarily distributes non-perishable food items through various retail channels within the United States. In contrast, the Refrigerated & Frozen segment focuses on supplying temperature-sensitive food products to comparable U.S. retail outlets. Its International division caters to markets outside the United States, offering food products in all temperature states to both retail consumers and professional food service operators globally. Domestically, the Foodservice segment specializes in providing both proprietary and custom-engineered culinary offerings, such as prepared meals, entrees, sauces, and other specially manufactured gastronomic items, tailored for restaurants and institutional food providers throughout the United States. Conagra maintains an extensive portfolio of well-recognized brands, including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP, Duke's, Earth Balance, Gardein, and Frontera. The company, which traces its origins back to 1861, was formerly known as ConAgra Foods, Inc. until its rebranding to Conagra Brands, Inc. in November 2016. Its main corporate offices are located in Chicago, Illinois.
Financial Metrics — CAG Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$23.55
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.04
ROIC (TTM)
-10.9%
ROE (TTM)
-24.3%
P/FCF
7.3x
EV/EBITDA
-8.7x
FCF Yield
13.69%
Debt/Equity
1.14x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, CAG generates free cash flow per share of $2.04 alongside a ROIC of -10.9%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 7.3x and FCF yield of 13.69% then frame how CAG is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CAG?
Conagra Brands, Inc. currently generates $2.04 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $14.94, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CAG undervalued?
CAG trades at a P/FCF ratio of 7.3x with a free cash flow yield of 13.69%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether CAG is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value CAG stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Conagra Brands, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.04) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Packaged Foods industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CAG's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.14x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CAG?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Conagra Brands, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Packaged Foods trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CAG's ROIC of -10.9% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect CAG stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CAG, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of -8.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CAG PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Defensive valuationsDCF and P/E value CAG with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.