ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Current Price
$1635.57
Intrinsic Value
$1,365.38
-19.8% margin of safety
What Is ASML Holding N.V.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-27, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) at $1,365.38 per share, compared with a market price of $1,635.57, a margin of safety of -19.8%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $1,200.38 to $1,559.48. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Undervalued?
At the current price of $1,635.57, ASML trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑EUV Lithography Monopoly
ASML is the sole global supplier of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. This technology is essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips, creating a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
↑Deep R&D Investment & Expertise
Decades of sustained, high-risk R&D investment have built unparalleled expertise in complex lithography technology. This deep knowledge base is difficult and time-consuming for rivals to replicate.
↑Customer Lock-in and Ecosystem
Major chip manufacturers like TSMC and Intel rely heavily on ASML's advanced systems. The integration and calibration of these machines create substantial switching costs and foster a strong customer ecosystem.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Technological Obsolescence Risk
While currently dominant, ASML faces the perpetual risk of a disruptive new lithography technology emerging. Failure to innovate or adapt could erode its current advantage.
↓AI Funding and Demand Volatility
Concerns about AI funding and broader market sentiment can impact semiconductor demand. This cyclical nature of the industry can lead to unpredictable revenue fluctuations for ASML.
↓Supply Chain Dependencies
ASML's complex manufacturing process relies on a specialized global supply chain. Disruptions to this chain, whether from geopolitical events or supplier issues, could impact production and delivery.
Base case
ASML base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$1,365.38
Margin of safety
-19.8%
Expected annual return
-3.5%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 27.15x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-27.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ASML valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ASML Holding N.V. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ASMLCompany Overview
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Financial Metrics — ASML Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$103.04
FCF/Share (TTM)
$55.19
ROIC (TTM)
37.2%
ROE (TTM)
63.9%
P/FCF
27.2x
EV/EBITDA
34.6x
FCF Yield
3.68%
Debt/Equity
0.09x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, ASML generates free cash flow per share of $55.19 alongside a ROIC of 37.2%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 27.2x and FCF yield of 3.68% then frame how ASML is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. currently generates $55.19 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $1635.57, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ASML undervalued?
ASML trades at a P/FCF ratio of 27.2x with a free cash flow yield of 3.68%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether ASML is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ASML stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ASML Holding N.V.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($55.19) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Semiconductors industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ASML's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.09x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ASML?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ASML Holding N.V., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Semiconductors trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ASML's ROIC of 37.2% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect ASML stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ASML, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 34.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ASML PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value ASML with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-27. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.