ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Current Price
$1863.55
Intrinsic Value
$1,390.01
-34.1% margin of safety
What Is ASML Holding N.V.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-06-12, our base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) at $1,390.01 per share, compared with a market price of $1,863.55, a margin of safety of -34.1%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $1,170.95 to $1,636.57. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How our DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Undervalued?
At the current price of $1,863.55, ASML trades above our base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than we assume would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑EUV Lithography Dominance
ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, essential for advanced chip manufacturing. This creates an insurmountable technological barrier for competitors.
↑Deep Customer Integration
ASML's machines require extensive customization and integration with chipmakers' processes. This deep partnership fosters long-term customer loyalty and high switching costs.
↑Intellectual Property Portfolio
The company holds a vast portfolio of patents covering critical lithography technologies. This extensive IP protection deters new entrants and safeguards its market position.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Geopolitical Tensions
Export restrictions and trade disputes, particularly involving China, can limit ASML's market access and revenue streams. This creates uncertainty in global sales.
↓Technological Obsolescence
While currently dominant, ASML must continuously innovate to stay ahead. A breakthrough in alternative lithography technologies could erode its competitive edge.
↓Supply Chain Dependencies
ASML relies on a complex global supply chain for its highly specialized components. Disruptions in this chain, due to natural disasters or other events, could impact production.
Base case
ASML base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$1,390.01
Margin of safety
-34.1%
Expected annual return
-5.7%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ASML valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ASML Holding N.V. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ASMLCompany Overview
ASML Holding N.V., founded in 1984 and based in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is a leading provider of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment for chipmakers. Known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. until its name change in 2001, the company is involved in the design, production, sales, marketing, and servicing of these critical systems. Its comprehensive product lineup includes sophisticated lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. ASML's lithography offerings feature cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, as well as deep ultraviolet (DUV) solutions, encompassing both immersion and dry technologies, engineered to facilitate the creation of a wide array of semiconductor nodes and technologies. The company also delivers specialized metrology and inspection tools, such as its YieldStar optical metrology systems for assessing pattern quality on silicon wafers, and HMI electron beam solutions for precisely locating and analyzing individual defects in chips. Furthermore, ASML provides computational lithography solutions and software for controlling its lithography systems. Its service portfolio includes refurbishing and upgrading existing equipment, alongside extensive customer support. ASML maintains a significant global presence, operating across key regions including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the wider Asian market, the Netherlands, other European countries, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States.
Financial Metrics — ASML Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$87.42
FCF/Share (TTM)
$23.24
ROIC (TTM)
34.9%
ROE (TTM)
52.0%
P/FCF
70.9x
EV/EBITDA
48.3x
FCF Yield
1.41%
Debt/Equity
0.13x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, ASML shows a free cash flow per share of $23.24 and a ROIC of 34.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 70.9x and FCF yield of 1.41% are important context metrics when evaluating ASML's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. currently generates $23.24 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $1863.55, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ASML undervalued?
ASML trades at a P/FCF ratio of 70.9x with a free cash flow yield of 1.41%. This elevated P/FCF suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, whether ASML is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ASML stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ASML Holding N.V.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($23.24) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Semiconductors industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ASML's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.13x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ASML?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ASML Holding N.V., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Semiconductors trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ASML's ROIC of 34.9% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect ASML stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ASML, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 48.3x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ASML PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value ASML with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.