Biotechnology · NASDAQ
当前价格
$49.56
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 Moderna, Inc. 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
ROIC (TTM)
-29.7%
ROE (TTM)
-30.1%
FCF Yield
-10.49%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，MRNA 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 -29.7%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 -10.49%，是评估 MRNA 相对估值的重要参考指标。
MRNA 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
MRNA 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $49.56 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Moderna, Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Biotechnology行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 MRNA 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Moderna, Inc.，这意味着预测Biotechnology在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。MRNA 的 ROIC 为 -29.7%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 MRNA，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
