Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Valuation — PE Analysis
Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$24.04
PE Ratio (TTM)
38.7x
Intrinsic Value
$41.26
+41.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Proprietary AI Lending Model
Upstart's AI-driven underwriting model aims to assess creditworthiness more accurately than traditional methods. This technology is a core differentiator, potentially leading to better loan performance.
↑Network Effects with Lenders
As more lenders adopt Upstart's platform, the network becomes more valuable to all participants. This creates a growing ecosystem that can be difficult for new entrants to replicate.
↑Data Advantage from Loan Performance
The company's AI model continuously learns from the performance of loans originated through its platform. This growing dataset enhances the model's predictive power over time.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity of Loan Defaults
Upstart's business is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Economic downturns can lead to increased loan defaults, impacting lender confidence and platform volume.
↓Reliance on Lender Adoption and Funding
The company's success depends on its ability to attract and retain lending partners. Any shifts in lender appetite for risk or funding could significantly affect revenue.
↓Perception Gap and Market Volatility
Despite claims of resilience, the stock's significant price declines and trending status suggest market skepticism and high volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty.
Base case
UPST base case PE valuation
A base case PE valuation for UPST estimates a fair value of about $41.26 per share, against a current price of $24.04. The model assumes 20.0% annual earnings growth, a 38.16x target PE multiple, and a 10% discount rate.
Intrinsic Value
$41.26
Margin of safety
+41.7%
Expected annual return
+11.4%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual earnings growth, 38.16x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the UPST PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for Upstart Holdings, Inc. respond.
Open PE Calculator for UPSTCompany Overview
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Financial Metrics — UPST PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
38.7x
PEG Ratio
0.03
Earnings Yield
2.60%
ROE (TTM)
7.9%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$13.32
Debt/Equity
2.54x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of UPST?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of UPST reflects how much investors pay per dollar of Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Financial - Credit Services peers and the company's own historical range.
Is UPST overvalued based on PE ratio?
UPST's PE of 38.7x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.03 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. A PEG below 1.0 means the P/E is low relative to the earnings growth rate. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Financial - Credit Services, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value UPST stock using PE ratio?
To value Upstart Holdings, Inc. using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (38.7x) against the Financial - Credit Services median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (0.03) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of UPST?
UPST's PEG ratio is 0.03, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (38.7x) by the expected earnings growth rate. A PEG below 1.0 means the P/E is low relative to the expected earnings growth rate. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for UPST stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how UPST is priced versus Financial - Credit Services peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For the most reliable valuation, use PE as a quick comparability screen and DCF for a deeper fundamental analysis. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See UPST DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Financial Services valuationsP/E and DCF value UPST with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.