Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Medical - Healthcare Plans · NYSE
Current Price
$194.82
Intrinsic Value
$153.39
-27.0% margin of safety
What Is Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-07, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) at $153.39 per share, compared with a market price of $194.82, a margin of safety of -27.0%. The base case assumes 6.1% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $128.5 to $181.72. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Undervalued?
At the current price of $194.82, MOH trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Government Contract Expertise
Molina excels in navigating complex government contracts for Medicaid and Medicare. This deep regulatory understanding creates high barriers to entry for new competitors.
↑Niche Market Focus
Specializing in serving low-income and vulnerable populations provides a dedicated customer base. This focus allows for tailored services and strong community relationships.
↑Scale in Government Programs
Significant scale within government-sponsored health plans allows for operational efficiencies and cost advantages. This scale is difficult for smaller players to replicate.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Dependence on Government Reimbursement
Molina's revenue is heavily reliant on government funding. Any reduction or changes in these programs poses a significant financial risk.
↓Execution Risk in Acquisitions
While acquisitions support growth, integrating new entities can be complex. Poor execution could lead to financial strain or operational disruptions.
↓Competition from Larger Insurers
Larger, more diversified health insurers can leverage greater resources. This competition can make it challenging to win and retain government contracts.
Base case
MOH base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$153.39
Margin of safety
-27.0%
Expected annual return
-4.7%
Base case assumptions: 6.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MOH valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Molina Healthcare, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MOHCompany Overview
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare programs, in addition to state health insurance marketplaces. Its operations are strategically segmented into four main divisions: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and a general "Other" category. By the close of 2021, specifically December 31st, Molina Healthcare's network extended to approximately 5.2 million members across 18 states, all of whom qualified for Medicaid, Medicare, or other government-sponsored healthcare plans. Established in 1980, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Long Beach, California.
Financial Metrics — MOH Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$867.88
FCF/Share (TTM)
$5.28
ROIC (TTM)
2.4%
ROE (TTM)
-0.2%
P/FCF
37.5x
EV/EBITDA
24.6x
FCF Yield
2.67%
Debt/Equity
0.95x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MOH shows a free cash flow per share of $5.28 and a ROIC of 2.4%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 37.5x and FCF yield of 2.67% are important context metrics when evaluating MOH's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MOH?
Molina Healthcare, Inc. currently generates $5.28 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $194.82, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MOH undervalued?
MOH trades at a P/FCF ratio of 37.5x with a free cash flow yield of 2.67%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether MOH is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MOH stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Molina Healthcare, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($5.28) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Medical - Healthcare Plans industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MOH's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.95x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MOH?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Molina Healthcare, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Medical - Healthcare Plans trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MOH's ROIC of 2.4% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MOH stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MOH, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.95x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 24.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MOH PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Healthcare valuationsDCF and P/E value MOH with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.