Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Regulated Electric · NYSE
Current Price
$115.50
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regulated Monopoly Infrastructure
Duke Energy operates extensive, high-cost electric transmission and distribution networks. These are natural monopolies with significant barriers to entry for competitors.
↑Essential Service Demand
Electricity is a non-discretionary service for homes and businesses. Demand is relatively inelastic, providing a stable revenue base even in economic downturns.
↑Long-Term Contracts & Rate Setting
Regulators approve rate structures that allow for cost recovery and a reasonable return on investment. This provides predictability and shields against immediate market volatility.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Extreme Weather Events
Increasingly severe weather events can cause widespread outages, leading to significant repair costs and potential reputational damage, despite operational excellence awards.
↓Interest Rate Sensitivity
As a capital-intensive business, Duke Energy relies on debt financing. Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs, impacting profitability and dividend sustainability.
↓Aging Infrastructure & Capital Expenditures
Maintaining and upgrading a vast, aging grid requires substantial ongoing capital investment. Delays or cost overruns in these projects can strain financial resources.
Customize the DUK valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Duke Energy Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for DUKCompany Overview
Duke Energy Corporation, an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates, structures its operations into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure division is responsible for generating, transmitting, distributing, and retailing electricity across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwestern states. Its power generation relies on a diverse portfolio of fuel sources, including coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable technologies, and nuclear energy. Beyond direct retail sales, it also provides electricity at wholesale rates to various entities such as municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving organizations. This segment caters to approximately 8.2 million customers spanning six states within the Southeastern and Midwestern U.S., encompassing a service area of about 91,000 square miles, and boasts an impressive generating capacity of approximately 50,259 megawatts. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment focuses on the distribution of natural gas to a broad customer base, including residential homes, commercial enterprises, industrial facilities, and power generation plants. It also manages, operates, and invests in essential pipeline transmission networks and natural gas storage facilities. This segment serves around 1.6 million customers in total, with roughly 1.1 million located in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and an additional 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Through its Commercial Renewables division, Duke Energy is actively involved in the acquisition, development, construction, ownership, and operation of wind and solar power projects. This includes offering non-regulated renewable energy and energy storage solutions to a variety of clients, such as utility companies, electric cooperatives, municipal governments, and corporate entities. The division's portfolio comprises 23 wind farms, 178 solar installations, two battery storage sites, and 71 fuel cell locations, totaling a substantial capacity of 3,554 MW spread across 22 different states. Established in 1904, the company was initially known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. before adopting its current name, Duke Energy Corporation, in April 2005. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Financial Metrics — DUK Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$42.85
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-5.46
ROIC (TTM)
4.2%
ROE (TTM)
9.9%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
FCF Yield
-4.71%
Debt/Equity
1.67x
DUK currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of DUK?
Duke Energy Corporation currently generates $-5.46 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $115.50, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is DUK undervalued?
DUK currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value DUK stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Duke Energy Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-5.46) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Regulated Electric industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting DUK's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.67x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to DUK?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Duke Energy Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Regulated Electric trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. DUK's ROIC of 4.2% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect DUK stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For DUK, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See DUK PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Utilities valuationsDCF and P/E value DUK with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.