MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
Current Price
$430.83
Intrinsic Value
$363.1
-18.7% margin of safety
What Is MongoDB, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-08-21, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) at $363.1 per share, compared with a market price of $430.83, a margin of safety of -18.7%. The base case assumes 18.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $305.63 to $427.88. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Undervalued?
At the current price of $430.83, MDB trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Developer Mindshare and Ecosystem
MongoDB's developer-first approach fosters strong adoption and a loyal community. This creates a sticky ecosystem around its products and services.
↑Atlas Cloud Platform Scale
The extensive scale and feature set of MongoDB Atlas offer significant operational efficiencies and advanced capabilities. This makes it difficult for competitors to match its comprehensive cloud offering.
↑Data Model Flexibility
The document data model's inherent flexibility simplifies application development and iteration. This reduces switching costs for businesses that have built applications on its adaptable structure.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Cloud Database Competition
The cloud database market is highly competitive, with hyperscalers and other specialized vendors constantly innovating. MongoDB faces pressure to maintain its differentiation and pricing power.
↓AI Integration Challenges
While MongoDB is integrating AI capabilities, the rapid evolution of AI technologies presents a risk. Ensuring its platform remains cutting-edge and seamlessly integrates with new AI advancements is crucial.
↓Talent Acquisition and Retention
Attracting and retaining top engineering talent in the competitive database and cloud infrastructure space is a continuous challenge. This can impact innovation and product development speed.
Base case
MDB base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$363.1
Margin of safety
-18.7%
Expected annual return
-3.4%
Base case assumptions: 18.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-08-21.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MDB valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for MongoDB, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MDBCompany Overview
MongoDB, Inc. serves as a global provider of a versatile database platform. The company's offerings feature MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a sophisticated commercial database server designed for corporate clients, which can be deployed in cloud, on-premises, or hybrid environments. It also presents MongoDB Atlas, a fully managed, multi-cloud database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solution. For developers seeking to start with MongoDB, the company offers a free, downloadable Community Server that includes fundamental database functionalities. Beyond its core database products, MongoDB, Inc. provides professional services such as consulting and training. Founded in 2007 and based in New York, New York, the company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. before adopting the name MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013.
Financial Metrics — MDB Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$32.39
FCF/Share (TTM)
$7.46
ROIC (TTM)
-3.5%
ROE (TTM)
-1.0%
P/FCF
57.8x
EV/EBITDA
1420.5x
FCF Yield
1.73%
Debt/Equity
0.01x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, MDB generates free cash flow per share of $7.46 alongside a ROIC of -3.5%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 57.8x and FCF yield of 1.73% then frame how MDB is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MDB?
MongoDB, Inc. currently generates $7.46 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $430.83, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MDB undervalued?
MDB trades at a P/FCF ratio of 57.8x with a free cash flow yield of 1.73%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether MDB is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MDB stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on MongoDB, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($7.46) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Software - Infrastructure industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MDB's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.01x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MDB?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For MongoDB, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Software - Infrastructure trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MDB's ROIC of -3.5% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MDB stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MDB, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 1420.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MDB PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value MDB with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-08-21. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.