Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Packaged Foods · NYSE
Current Price
$19.55
Intrinsic Value
$18.88
-3.6% margin of safety
What Is Hormel Foods Corporation's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-07, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) at $18.88 per share, compared with a market price of $19.55, a margin of safety of -3.6%. The base case assumes 1.8% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $14.71 to $23.72. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Undervalued?
At $19.55, HRL trades about 3.6% above the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a modest premium. By this model the price sits within a normal band, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Loyalty and Shelf Space
Hormel's established brands like Spam and Skippy command strong consumer recognition and secure prime shelf placement in grocery stores. This makes it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.
↑Scale and Distribution Network
The company's extensive production and distribution capabilities allow for efficient cost management and broad market reach. This scale creates a significant barrier to entry for smaller competitors.
↑Product Diversification
Hormel's broad portfolio across various protein and food categories mitigates risk and caters to diverse consumer preferences. This diversification provides resilience against sector-specific downturns.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Input Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in the cost of raw materials like meat, grains, and packaging can impact profit margins. Hormel's ability to pass these costs to consumers is not guaranteed.
↓Changing Consumer Preferences
Shifts towards healthier eating, plant-based alternatives, or private label brands could erode demand for Hormel's traditional offerings. Adapting to these trends is crucial.
↓Supply Chain Disruptions
Global events, labor issues, or transportation challenges can disrupt Hormel's production and distribution. Maintaining a resilient supply chain is a constant concern.
Base case
HRL base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$18.88
Margin of safety
-3.6%
Expected annual return
-0.7%
Base case assumptions: 1.8% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 13.82x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the HRL valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Hormel Foods Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for HRLCompany Overview
Hormel Foods Corporation is a prominent global food company that specializes in the creation, preparation, and supply of a diverse array of meat, nut, and other culinary items. Its extensive clientele spans retail outlets, institutional food providers (foodservice), specialty delis, and various commercial enterprises across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are strategically structured into four main divisions: Grocery Products, Refrigerated Foods, Jennie-O Turkey Store, and International & Other. Hormel's product portfolio is broad, encompassing numerous perishable goods such as fresh meats, frozen food selections, convenient refrigerated meal options, a variety of sausages, hams, guacamole, and bacon. Additionally, it offers a wide range of non-perishable items, including canned luncheon meats, various nut butters, snack nuts, chili, microwave-ready meals, hashes, stews, tortillas, salsas, and tortilla chips. Beyond these offerings, Hormel Foods is also actively involved in the processing, promotion, and distribution of both branded and unbranded products derived from pork, beef, poultry, and turkey. The company further supplies nutritional food items and supplements, dessert and beverage mixes, and industrial-grade gelatin. Its extensive product line is marketed under numerous widely recognized brand names, including SKIPPY, SPAM, Hormel, Natural Choice, Applegate, Justin's, Jennie-O, Café H, Herdez, Black Label, Sadler's, Columbus, Gatherings, Wholly, Planters, NUT-rition, Planters Cheez Balls, and Corn Nuts. These products reach consumers through a multi-channel distribution network, utilizing internal sales teams, independent brokers, and various distributors. Founded in 1891 as Geo. A. Hormel & Company, the organization was officially rebranded as Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Its corporate headquarters are located in Austin, Minnesota.
Financial Metrics — HRL Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$22.06
FCF/Share (TTM)
$1.42
ROIC (TTM)
3.2%
ROE (TTM)
4.3%
P/FCF
13.8x
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
FCF Yield
7.24%
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, HRL shows a free cash flow per share of $1.42 and a ROIC of 3.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 13.8x and FCF yield of 7.24% are important context metrics when evaluating HRL's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of HRL?
Hormel Foods Corporation currently generates $1.42 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $19.55, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is HRL undervalued?
HRL trades at a P/FCF ratio of 13.8x with a free cash flow yield of 7.24%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether HRL is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value HRL stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Hormel Foods Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($1.42) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Packaged Foods industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting HRL's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to HRL?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Hormel Foods Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Packaged Foods trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. HRL's ROIC of 3.2% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect HRL stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For HRL, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 14.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See HRL PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Defensive valuationsDCF and P/E value HRL with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.