United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Valuation — PE Analysis
Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE
Current Price
$108.01
PE Ratio (TTM)
17.4x
Intrinsic Value
$145.37
+25.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Network Density & Scale
UPS's extensive global network of hubs, vehicles, and personnel creates significant barriers to entry. This scale allows for unparalleled efficiency and reach in package delivery.
↑Brand & Customer Loyalty
Decades of reliable service have built a strong brand reputation and deep customer loyalty, particularly among businesses relying on consistent delivery. This trust is hard for competitors to replicate.
↑Technological Integration
Sophisticated tracking, route optimization, and data analytics systems enhance operational efficiency and provide valuable insights. This technological edge improves service and reduces costs.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Labor Relations
UPS's reliance on a large unionized workforce presents ongoing risks of labor disputes and contract negotiations. These can lead to disruptions and increased operating costs.
↓Competition Intensifies
The logistics industry faces increasing competition from established players and agile new entrants, including e-commerce giants. This can pressure pricing and market share.
↓Economic Sensitivity
Package volumes are closely tied to overall economic activity. A significant economic downturn could lead to reduced demand for UPS's services.
Base case
UPS base case PE valuation
A base case PE valuation for UPS estimates a fair value of about $145.37 per share, against a current price of $108.01. The model assumes 11.6% annual earnings growth, a 17x target PE multiple, and a 10% discount rate.
Intrinsic Value
$145.37
Margin of safety
+25.7%
Expected annual return
+6.1%
Base case assumptions: 11.6% annual earnings growth, 17x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the UPS PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for United Parcel Service, Inc. respond.
Open PE Calculator for UPSCompany Overview
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Financial Metrics — UPS PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
17.4x
PEG Ratio
n/m
Earnings Yield
5.72%
ROE (TTM)
33.0%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$103.90
Dividend Yield
6.07%
Debt/Equity
1.82x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of UPS?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of UPS reflects how much investors pay per dollar of United Parcel Service, Inc.'s earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Integrated Freight & Logistics peers and the company's own historical range.
Is UPS overvalued based on PE ratio?
UPS's PE of 17.4x combined with a PEG ratio of -1.76 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. UPS has negative earnings, so its PE and PEG ratios are not meaningful here and cannot tell you whether the stock is over or undervalued. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Integrated Freight & Logistics, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value UPS stock using PE ratio?
To value United Parcel Service, Inc. using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (17.4x) against the Integrated Freight & Logistics median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (-1.76) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of UPS?
UPS's PEG ratio is -1.76, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (17.4x) by the expected earnings growth rate. Because UPS has negative earnings, its PEG ratio is not meaningful and should not be read as a sign of under or overvaluation. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for UPS stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how UPS is priced versus Integrated Freight & Logistics peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For UPS, with a strong ROE of 33.0%, both methods are worth using — PE for a market-relative check, DCF to stress-test whether fundamentals justify the price. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See UPS DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Industrials valuationsP/E and DCF value UPS with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-06-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.