Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Computer Hardware · NASDAQ
Current Price
$790.52
Intrinsic Value
$784.39
-0.8% margin of safety
What Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-08, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) at $784.39 per share, compared with a market price of $790.52, a margin of safety of -0.8%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $660.77 to $923.53. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Undervalued?
At $790.52, STX trades about 0.8% above the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a modest premium. By this model the price sits within a normal band, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Long-term HDD contracts
Seagate has secured nearline drive orders with defined pricing through 2027. This provides revenue visibility and pricing power in a critical market segment.
↑HAMR technology leadership
Seagate's expertise in Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) positions them to meet increasing mass-capacity storage demands. This technological edge is crucial for future growth.
↑Scale and manufacturing efficiency
As a major HDD manufacturer, Seagate benefits from economies of scale. This allows for cost efficiencies that smaller competitors may struggle to match.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓AI adoption's storage needs
While AI adoption drives storage demand, the specific types of storage solutions required (e.g., SSDs vs. HDDs) could shift. Seagate must adapt its product mix.
↓Profit-taking in storage stocks
Recent strong performance in storage stocks can lead to profit-taking, causing price declines. This is a market dynamic that can affect Seagate's valuation.
↓Competition in mass-capacity storage
The market for mass-capacity storage is competitive. Competitors may develop alternative technologies or offer aggressive pricing, challenging Seagate's market position.
Base case
STX base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$784.39
Margin of safety
-0.8%
Expected annual return
-0.2%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-08.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the STX valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Seagate Technology Holdings plc respond.
Open DCF Calculator for STXCompany Overview
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs. Its consumer-focused segment features external storage devices sold under popular lines such as Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion, as well as the premium LaCie brand. The company's product range further extends to internal desktop and notebook drives, HDDs for digital video recorders (DVRs), and high-performance gaming SSDs. Moreover, Seagate delivers the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform, an innovative solution designed for managing and transferring vast amounts of data. Its clientele primarily consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers. Established in 1978, Seagate Technology Holdings plc continues to be a leader in the data storage industry.
Financial Metrics — STX Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$55.68
FCF/Share (TTM)
$15.19
ROIC (TTM)
51.4%
ROE (TTM)
348.2%
P/FCF
53.3x
EV/EBITDA
42.2x
FCF Yield
1.88%
Debt/Equity
1.78x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, STX generates free cash flow per share of $15.19 alongside a ROIC of 51.4%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 53.3x and FCF yield of 1.88% then frame how STX is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of STX?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc currently generates $15.19 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $790.52, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is STX undervalued?
STX trades at a P/FCF ratio of 53.3x with a free cash flow yield of 1.88%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether STX is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value STX stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Seagate Technology Holdings plc: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($15.19) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Computer Hardware industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting STX's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.78x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to STX?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Seagate Technology Holdings plc, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Computer Hardware trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. STX's ROIC of 51.4% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect STX stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For STX, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 42.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See STX PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value STX with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-08. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.