ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Current Price
$1763.76
Intrinsic Value
Outside reliable range
What Is ASML Holding N.V.'s Intrinsic Value?
The base-case DCF model produces an intrinsic value estimate for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) that falls outside its reliable range, so treat any single number with extra caution. This usually happens with unusual cash flow patterns or rapid recent changes in the business.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Undervalued?
Because the model output for ASML is outside the reliable range, no undervalued or overvalued read is given here. Use the calculator below to test your own assumptions instead.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑EUV Lithography Dominance
ASML holds a near-monopoly in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, essential for advanced chip manufacturing. This technology is incredibly complex and costly to replicate.
↑Deep R&D Investment & Expertise
Decades of sustained, massive investment in research and development have built unparalleled expertise. This creates a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
↑Customer Lock-in and Ecosystem
Major chip manufacturers are deeply integrated with ASML's systems and require extensive training and support. Switching to a competitor would be prohibitively expensive and disruptive.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Concentration of Key Customers
ASML's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major semiconductor manufacturers. Any significant downturn or strategic shift by these customers could impact ASML.
↓Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The complex nature of ASML's machines means it relies on a specialized global supply chain. Disruptions to this chain can impact production and delivery.
↓AI Demand Volatility
While AI currently drives demand, the pace of AI development and its hardware requirements can be unpredictable, leading to potential fluctuations in demand for ASML's equipment.
Base case
ASML base case valuation
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-08-21.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ASML valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ASML Holding N.V. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ASMLCompany Overview
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Financial Metrics — ASML Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$91.66
FCF/Share (TTM)
$25.95
ROIC (TTM)
36.9%
ROE (TTM)
52.4%
P/FCF
58.0x
EV/EBITDA
41.7x
FCF Yield
1.72%
Debt/Equity
0.09x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, ASML generates free cash flow per share of $25.95 alongside a ROIC of 36.9%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 58.0x and FCF yield of 1.72% then frame how ASML is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. currently generates $25.95 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $1763.76, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ASML undervalued?
ASML trades at a P/FCF ratio of 58.0x with a free cash flow yield of 1.72%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether ASML is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ASML stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ASML Holding N.V.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($25.95) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Semiconductors industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ASML's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.09x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ASML?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ASML Holding N.V., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Semiconductors trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ASML's ROIC of 36.9% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect ASML stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ASML, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 41.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ASML PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value ASML with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-08-21. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.