Apple Inc. (AAPL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Consumer Electronics · NASDAQ
Current Price
$282.17
Intrinsic Value
$332.7
+15.2% margin of safety
What Is Apple Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-06-29, our base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Apple Inc. (AAPL) at $332.7 per share, compared with a market price of $282.17, a margin of safety of +15.2%. The base case assumes 11.8% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $279.36 to $393.13. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How our DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) Undervalued?
At $282.17, AAPL trades about 15.2% below our base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety we require before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Ecosystem Lock-in and Brand Loyalty
Apple's integrated hardware, software, and services create a sticky ecosystem. This, combined with its strong brand, fosters deep customer loyalty and repeat purchases.
↑AI Integration and Product Redefinition
Apple Intelligence promises to redefine product upgrade cycles by deeply integrating AI. This could drive significant demand and further solidify its market position.
↑Pricing Power Amidst Supply Constraints
Apple demonstrates pricing power by passing on increased memory costs due to AI demand. This highlights its ability to manage supply chain pressures and maintain margins.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Geopolitical Chip Sourcing Challenges
Apple's attempts to source chips from blacklisted Chinese companies highlight geopolitical risks. This could lead to supply chain disruptions and regulatory hurdles.
↓AI as an Inflationary Force
The AI boom's inflationary impact on component costs, like memory, could pressure Apple's margins. This challenges the narrative of AI driving down costs.
↓Intensifying Competition in AI
While Apple is integrating AI, competitors are also rapidly advancing. The race for AI dominance could lead to increased R&D costs and market share battles.
Base case
AAPL base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$332.7
Margin of safety
+15.2%
Expected annual return
+3.3%
Base case assumptions: 11.8% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the AAPL valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Apple Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for AAPLCompany Overview
Apple Inc. is a global technology corporation that specializes in the conceptualization, production, and sale of a diverse suite of electronic devices. Its comprehensive hardware lineup features the well-known iPhone smartphones, Mac personal computers, and versatile iPad tablets. The company also supplies a range of wearables, smart home products, and accessories, including AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, items from the Beats brand, and HomePod speakers. Beyond its device offerings, Apple delivers essential support services like AppleCare and robust cloud solutions. It oversees key digital platforms, prominently the App Store, which acts as a central hub for customers to discover and download countless applications and digital content, from e-books and music to videos, games, and podcasts. The company also generates revenue via advertising, leveraging both its proprietary ad platforms and third-party licensing deals. Apple's ecosystem is further bolstered by a wide array of subscription-based services: Apple Arcade for gaming, Apple Fitness+ for personalized wellness, Apple Music for curated audio experiences and on-demand radio, Apple News+ for access to news and magazines, and Apple TV+ for exclusive original video programming. Its financial services portfolio includes the co-branded Apple Card and the mobile payment system, Apple Pay. Additionally, Apple strategically licenses its intellectual property. The company serves a broad clientele that spans individual consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as institutional clients in the education, corporate, and governmental sectors. Products are distributed through a multi-channel strategy, utilizing Apple's own physical retail locations and online storefronts, a dedicated direct sales team, and collaborations with external partners such as mobile network providers, wholesalers, general retailers, and authorized resellers. The App Store additionally functions as the primary conduit for third-party applications designed for its devices. Founded in 1976, Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Financial Metrics — AAPL Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$30.69
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.78
ROIC (TTM)
49.6%
ROE (TTM)
146.7%
P/FCF
32.1x
EV/EBITDA
26.2x
FCF Yield
3.12%
Debt/Equity
0.80x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, AAPL shows a free cash flow per share of $8.78 and a ROIC of 49.6%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 32.1x and FCF yield of 3.12% are important context metrics when evaluating AAPL's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of AAPL?
Apple Inc. currently generates $8.78 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $282.17, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is AAPL undervalued?
AAPL trades at a P/FCF ratio of 32.1x with a free cash flow yield of 3.12%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether AAPL is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value AAPL stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Apple Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.78) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Consumer Electronics industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting AAPL's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.80x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to AAPL?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Apple Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Consumer Electronics trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. AAPL's ROIC of 49.6% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect AAPL stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For AAPL, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.80x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 26.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See AAPL PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value AAPL with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.