当前价格
$1288.45
市盈率(TTM)
42.9x
内在价值
$1,560.05
安全边际 +17.4%
竞争护城河
↑专利壁垒
Eli Lilly 拥有强大的专利组合,保护其创新药物免受仿制药竞争。这为其带来了长期的市场独占权和定价能力。
↑研发实力
公司在药物研发方面投入巨大,拥有领先的科学技术和人才储备。这使其能够持续推出突破性新药,巩固其行业地位。
↑品牌声誉
Eli Lilly 拥有悠久的历史和良好的品牌声誉,尤其在糖尿病和肿瘤等领域。这有助于其新药的推广和患者的信任。
投资风险
↓临床试验失败
新药研发过程充满不确定性,临床试验可能因疗效不足或安全性问题而失败,导致巨额投资付诸东流。
↓定价压力
政府、保险公司和患者对药品价格的压力日益增大,可能限制 Eli Lilly 的盈利能力和新药的广泛可及性。
↓新兴技术颠覆
基因编辑、AI 药物发现等新兴技术可能改变药物研发模式,对传统制药公司的研发管线和商业模式构成潜在威胁。
基准情形
按当前股价 $1,288.45,基准情形的 PE 估值将 LLY 的公允价值定在每股约 $1,560.05。该数值假设 11.9% 的年度盈利增长、42.83x 的目标 PE 倍数和 10% 的折现率。
内在价值
$1,560.05
安全边际
+17.4%
预期年化收益
+3.9%
基准情形假设:盈利年增长率 11.9%、目标 P/E 倍数 42.83x、折现率 10%、预测 5 年。数据截至 2026-10-28。
本基准情形采用默认假设,不构成投资建议。当目标 PE 或盈利增长率变化时,公允价值会显著改变。打开计算器可设置你自己的假设,并查看完整的敏感性区间。
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid, and other thyroid cancers; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymphoma and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio, prescribed for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node-positive, and early breast cancer. For autoimmune and inflammatory conditions, the company markets Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, and Taltz, which addresses plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis. Addressing neurological and pain management needs, Eli Lilly provides Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain. Emgality is available for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headaches, while Zyprexa treats schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and aids in bipolar maintenance. Other significant products include Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, along with Bebtelovimab, both developed for COVID-19. Cialis is offered for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia, and Forteo is available for osteoporosis. Eli Lilly actively engages in strategic collaborations with numerous partners, including Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Established in 1876, Eli Lilly and Company maintains its corporate headquarters in Indianapolis, Indiana.
市盈率(TTM)
42.9x
PEG 比率
0.45
盈利收益率
2.33%
ROE (TTM)
92.6%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$89.27
股息率
0.52%
Debt/Equity
1.62x
LLY 的过去 12 个月市盈率反映投资者为 Eli Lilly and Company 每一美元收益所支付的价格。该指标在与Drug Manufacturers - General同类公司和公司自身历史区间对比时最有意义。
LLY 的市盈率 42.9x 结合 PEG 比率 0.45 提供了增长调整后的视角。PEG 低于 1.0 表明市盈率相对于盈利增速偏低。注意 PE 估值最适合盈利稳定的成熟公司——对于高增长或周期性Drug Manufacturers - General,DCF 分析可能更合适。
对 Eli Lilly and Company 使用 PE 估值的步骤:(1) 将当前市盈率 (42.9x)与Drug Manufacturers - General中位数对比评估相对定价,(2) 查看 PEG 比率 (0.45)以调整增长预期,(3) 参考 5 年 PE 历史区间判断当前位置,(4) 用目标 PE 乘以前瞻 EPS 估算公允价值。这种相对估值方法与 DCF 的绝对估值互为补充。
LLY 的 PEG 比率为 0.45,由市盈率(42.9x)除以预期盈利增速计算。PEG 低于 1.0 意味着市盈率相对于预期盈利增速偏低。注意 PEG 的准确性取决于增长预期的可靠性。
PE 市盈率给出快速的相对定价——LLY 相对于Drug Manufacturers - General同类的估值水平。DCF 基于预期自由现金流提供绝对价值。对于 LLY,ROE 达到 92.6%,两种方法都值得使用——PE 做市场对比,DCF 验证基本面是否支撑当前价格。两种方法各有盲区:PE 忽略了资本结构和现金流质量,DCF 则对增长率和折现率假设非常敏感。
PE 与 DCF 使用不同的方法和假设为 LLY 估值,因此两者的结论可能不同。可对比 DCF 内在价值。
价格截至 2026-10-28。 财务数据来自 Financial Modeling Prep(过去 12 个月)· 估值方法论由 Charlie Wang 提供。
这是估计值,不构成投资建议。