Packaged Foods · NYSE
当前价格
$95.24
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 The J. M. Smucker Company 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
ROIC (TTM)
2.1%
ROE (TTM)
-21.6%
FCF Yield
9.56%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，SJM 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 2.1%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 9.56%，是评估 SJM 相对估值的重要参考指标。
SJM 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
SJM 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $95.24 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 The J. M. Smucker Company 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Packaged Foods行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 SJM 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 The J. M. Smucker Company，这意味着预测Packaged Foods在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。SJM 的 ROIC 为 2.1%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 SJM，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
