Tobacco · NYSE
当前价格
$163.54
内在价值
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对 Philip Morris International Inc. 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products that are sold in markets outside the United States. The company offers its smoke-free products under the HEETS, HEETS Creations, HEETS Dimensions, HEETS Marlboro, HEETS FROM MARLBORO, Marlboro Dimensions, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA brands, as well as the KT&G-licensed brands, Fiit, and Miix. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. The company sells its smoke-free products in 71 markets. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
ROIC (TTM)
25.6%
ROE (TTM)
-103.7%
FCF Yield
4.19%
PM 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
PM 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $163.54 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Philip Morris International Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Tobacco行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 PM 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Philip Morris International Inc.，这意味着预测Tobacco在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。PM 的 ROIC 为 25.6%，表明资本效率较高，支持在 DCF 模型中使用较高的增长假设。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 PM，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
