Financial - Capital Markets · NYSE
当前价格
$158.34
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 Morgan Stanley 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The Institutional Securities segment offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity, and other securities, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate, and project finance. This segment also provides sales and trading services, such as sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services in equity and fixed income products consisting of foreign exchange and commodities; corporate and commercial real estate loans, which provides secured lending facilities and financing for sales and trading customers, and asset-backed and mortgage lending; and wealth management services, investment, and research services. The Wealth Management segment offers financial advisor-led brokerage and investment advisory services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; workplace services, including stock plan administration; annuity and insurance products; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses and institutions. The Investment Management segment provides equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative/other products to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and third-party fund sponsors and corporations through institutional and intermediary channels. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
ROIC (TTM)
1.7%
ROE (TTM)
15.4%
FCF Yield
-7.12%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，MS 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 1.7%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 -7.12%，是评估 MS 相对估值的重要参考指标。
MS 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
MS 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $158.34 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Morgan Stanley 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Financial - Capital Markets行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 MS 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Morgan Stanley，这意味着预测Financial - Capital Markets在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。MS 的 ROIC 为 1.7%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 MS，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
