当前价格
$169.09
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The company offers medical and supplemental benefit plans to individuals. It also has a contract with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to administer the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition prescription drug plan program; and contracts with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible, and long-term support services benefits. In addition, the company provides commercial fully insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits comprising dental, vision, and other supplemental health benefits; and administrative services only products to individuals and employer groups, as well as military services, such as TRICARE T2017 East Region contract. Further, it offers pharmacy solutions, provider services, and home solutions services, such as home health and other services to its health plan members, as well as to third parties. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 17 million members in medical benefit plans, as well as approximately 5 million members in specialty products. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
ROIC (TTM)
3.1%
ROE (TTM)
6.6%
FCF Yield
1.84%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，HUM 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 3.1%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 1.84%，是评估 HUM 相对估值的重要参考指标。
HUM 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
HUM 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $169.09 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Humana Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Medical - Healthcare Plans行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 HUM 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Humana Inc.，这意味着预测Medical - Healthcare Plans在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。HUM 的 ROIC 为 3.1%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 HUM，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
