Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Steel · NYSE
Current Price
$12.20
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Integrated Steel Production
CLF controls the entire steelmaking process from raw materials to finished products. This integration offers cost advantages and supply chain resilience.
↑Long-Term Customer Contracts
The company has established long-term agreements with major automotive and infrastructure clients. These contracts provide revenue stability and predictable demand.
↑Technological Expertise in Advanced Steels
CLF possesses specialized knowledge in producing high-strength, advanced steel grades. This technical capability creates a barrier for competitors lacking similar R&D and manufacturing prowess.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Competition
The upcoming large-scale foreign steel mill, alongside existing domestic competitors like Nucor and Steel Dynamics, will create a more crowded and competitive market. This could lead to price wars and reduced margins for CLF.
↓Market Sentiment and Stock Volatility
Recent significant price drops and subsequent rebounds indicate high stock volatility. This suggests market sentiment can heavily influence CLF's valuation, potentially detached from underlying business fundamentals.
↓Economic Downturn Impact
A slowdown in key customer industries like automotive or construction would directly reduce demand for CLF's steel products. This cyclical sensitivity poses a significant risk to revenue and profitability.
Customize the CLF valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CLFCompany Overview
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stands as a prominent North American manufacturer specializing in flat-rolled steel. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses a wide array of carbon steel forms, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel. Additionally, they supply stainless steel, various steel plates, and specialized electrical steels (both grain-oriented and non-oriented). Beyond these core offerings, Cleveland-Cliffs produces tubular components, fabricated from carbon steel, stainless steel, and via electric resistance welding. Their tinplate division manufactures electrolytic tin-coated and chrome-coated sheets, alongside other tin mill products. The company also provides essential raw materials, ingots, rolled and cast blooms, hot-briquetted iron, and services like tooling and sampling. A key aspect of its operations is vertical integration, as the company owns and manages five iron ore mines located in Minnesota and Michigan. Cleveland-Cliffs serves a broad customer base, including the automotive industry, infrastructure and general manufacturing sectors, distributors, converters, and other steel producers. Founded in 1847, the company is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, and officially adopted the name Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017, having previously been known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
Financial Metrics — CLF Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$33.62
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-1.50
ROIC (TTM)
-2.9%
ROE (TTM)
-15.2%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
23.5x
FCF Yield
-12.32%
Debt/Equity
1.37x
CLF currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CLF?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. currently generates $-1.50 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $12.20, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CLF undervalued?
CLF currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value CLF stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-1.50) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Steel industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CLF's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.37x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CLF?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Steel trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CLF's ROIC of -2.9% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect CLF stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CLF, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 23.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CLF PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value CLF with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-08. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.