Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$24.19
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Proprietary AI Lending Model
Upstart's AI-driven underwriting model aims to assess creditworthiness more accurately than traditional methods. This technology is a core differentiator, potentially leading to better loan performance.
↑Network Effects with Lenders
As more lenders adopt Upstart's platform, the network becomes more valuable to all participants. This creates a growing ecosystem that can be difficult for new entrants to replicate.
↑Data Advantage from Loan Performance
The company's AI model continuously learns from the performance of loans originated through its platform. This growing dataset enhances the model's predictive power over time.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity of Loan Defaults
Upstart's business is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Economic downturns can lead to increased loan defaults, impacting lender confidence and platform volume.
↓Reliance on Lender Adoption and Funding
The company's success depends on its ability to attract and retain lending partners. Any shifts in lender appetite for risk or funding could significantly affect revenue.
↓Perception Gap and Market Volatility
Despite claims of resilience, the stock's significant price declines and trending status suggest market skepticism and high volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty.
Customize the UPST valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Upstart Holdings, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for UPSTCompany Overview
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Financial Metrics — UPST Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$13.32
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-3.07
ROIC (TTM)
2.0%
ROE (TTM)
7.9%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
44.3x
FCF Yield
-12.91%
Debt/Equity
2.54x
UPST currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of UPST?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently generates $-3.07 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $24.19, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is UPST undervalued?
UPST currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value UPST stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Upstart Holdings, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-3.07) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Financial - Credit Services industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting UPST's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 2.54x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to UPST?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Upstart Holdings, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Financial - Credit Services trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. UPST's ROIC of 2.0% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect UPST stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For UPST, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.54x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 44.3x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See UPST PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Financial Services valuationsDCF and P/E value UPST with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-08. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.