Newmont Corporation (NEM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Gold · NYSE
Current Price
$113.65
Intrinsic Value
$59.28
-91.7% margin of safety
What Is Newmont Corporation's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-07, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Newmont Corporation (NEM) at $59.28 per share, compared with a market price of $113.65, a margin of safety of -91.7%. The base case assumes 2.9% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $51.89 to $68.02. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) Undervalued?
At the current price of $113.65, NEM trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑World-Class Asset Portfolio
Newmont possesses a portfolio of high-quality, long-life gold mines in favorable jurisdictions. This provides a stable foundation for production and cash flow.
↑Operational Expertise and Scale
Decades of experience in complex mining operations and significant scale offer efficiencies. This allows for cost advantages and better resource management.
↑Exploration and Development Pipeline
A robust pipeline of exploration projects and development opportunities ensures future growth. This replenishes reserves and extends mine lives.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Resource Depletion and Reserve Replacement
The finite nature of gold deposits means continuous exploration and development are critical. Failure to replace depleted reserves could lead to declining production.
↓Labor and Supply Chain Disruptions
Mining operations are labor-intensive and rely on complex supply chains. Strikes, skilled labor shortages, or disruptions can significantly impact output and costs.
↓Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Scrutiny
Increasing focus on ESG factors can lead to reputational damage and operational challenges. Strict adherence to evolving standards is crucial for long-term sustainability.
Base case
NEM base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$59.28
Margin of safety
-91.7%
Expected annual return
-12.2%
Base case assumptions: 2.9% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 9.61x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the NEM valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Newmont Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for NEMCompany Overview
Newmont Corporation is primarily involved in the mining and exploration of gold resources. Additionally, the company undertakes prospecting for other base and precious metals, including copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Its operations and assets are geographically widespread, located across various countries such as the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of the close of 2021 (December 31st), Newmont reported substantial proven and probable gold reserves, totaling 92.8 million ounces, and managed a vast land portfolio covering 62,800 square kilometers. Founded in 1916, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Denver, Colorado.
Financial Metrics — NEM Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$21.21
FCF/Share (TTM)
$11.99
ROIC (TTM)
15.6%
ROE (TTM)
25.0%
P/FCF
9.6x
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
FCF Yield
10.41%
Debt/Equity
0.15x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, NEM shows a free cash flow per share of $11.99 and a ROIC of 15.6%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 9.6x and FCF yield of 10.41% are important context metrics when evaluating NEM's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of NEM?
Newmont Corporation currently generates $11.99 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $113.65, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is NEM undervalued?
NEM trades at a P/FCF ratio of 9.6x with a free cash flow yield of 10.41%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether NEM is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value NEM stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Newmont Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($11.99) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Gold industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting NEM's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.15x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to NEM?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Newmont Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Gold trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. NEM's ROIC of 15.6% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect NEM stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For NEM, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 8.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See NEM PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value NEM with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.