Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
Current Price
$123.00
Intrinsic Value
$61.88
-98.8% margin of safety
What Is Palantir Technologies Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) at $61.88 per share, compared with a market price of $123, a margin of safety of -98.8%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $52.13 to $72.86. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Undervalued?
At the current price of $123, PLTR trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Proprietary AI Platform
Palantir's integrated AI platforms, Gotham and Foundry, offer unique capabilities for complex data analysis and operational decision-making. This deep integration creates significant switching costs for clients.
↑Government Contract Lock-in
Long-standing, high-security government contracts provide recurring revenue and deep integration into critical national security infrastructure. These relationships are difficult for competitors to replicate.
↑Data Network Effects
As more data is integrated and analyzed on Palantir's platforms, the insights become more valuable. This creates a virtuous cycle, enhancing the platform's utility and user stickiness.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Sales Cycle Length
Palantir's complex solutions often involve long sales cycles, particularly with new enterprise clients. This can lead to unpredictable revenue streams and slower growth than anticipated.
↓Dependence on Key Personnel
The company's success is heavily reliant on its founders and key technical talent. The departure of these individuals could negatively impact innovation and strategic direction.
↓Valuation Volatility
Palantir's stock price has historically experienced significant volatility, driven by market sentiment and growth expectations. This can lead to substantial investor losses despite underlying business performance.
Base case
PLTR base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$61.88
Margin of safety
-98.8%
Expected annual return
-12.8%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the PLTR valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Palantir Technologies Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for PLTRCompany Overview
Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. One such product is Palantir Gotham, a sophisticated software system that enables users to uncover hidden patterns within diverse datasets, from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports. Gotham also facilitates the seamless handover between analysts and operational personnel, helping operators strategize and execute real-world responses to threats pinpointed within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that revolutionizes organizational operations by providing a central data operating system, allowing individual users to integrate and analyze their essential data in one cohesive environment. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software solution for delivering applications and updates across an enterprise, enabling clients to deploy their software in virtually any setting. Its Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) offers unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs). AIP excels at transforming both structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects, converting an organization's actions and processes into practical tools for human operators and LLM-driven agents alike. Founded in 2003, Palantir Technologies Inc. maintains its headquarters in Denver, Colorado.
Financial Metrics — PLTR Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$2.18
FCF/Share (TTM)
$1.12
ROIC (TTM)
22.3%
ROE (TTM)
32.2%
P/FCF
105.0x
EV/EBITDA
119.3x
FCF Yield
0.95%
Debt/Equity
0.03x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, PLTR shows a free cash flow per share of $1.12 and a ROIC of 22.3%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 105.0x and FCF yield of 0.95% are important context metrics when evaluating PLTR's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of PLTR?
Palantir Technologies Inc. currently generates $1.12 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $123.00, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is PLTR undervalued?
PLTR trades at a P/FCF ratio of 105.0x with a free cash flow yield of 0.95%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether PLTR is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value PLTR stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Palantir Technologies Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($1.12) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Software - Infrastructure industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting PLTR's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.03x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to PLTR?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Palantir Technologies Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Software - Infrastructure trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. PLTR's ROIC of 22.3% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect PLTR stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For PLTR, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 119.3x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See PLTR PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value PLTR with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.