Biotechnology · NASDAQ
Current Price
$45.72
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on Moderna, Inc. with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
ROIC (TTM)
-29.7%
ROE (TTM)
-30.1%
FCF Yield
-11.33%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MRNA shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of -29.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of -11.33% are important context metrics when evaluating MRNA's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of MRNA depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether MRNA is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $45.72. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on Moderna, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Biotechnology industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MRNA's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Moderna, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the Biotechnology will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MRNA's ROIC of -29.7% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MRNA, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
