The Mosaic Company (MOS) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$22.69
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Global Phosphate & Potash Producer
Mosaic is one of the world's largest producers of phosphate and potash, essential crop nutrients. This scale provides significant cost advantages and market influence.
↑Strategic Mine Locations
Its operations are located in regions with high-quality, low-cost reserves. This geographic advantage supports long-term, efficient production and supply chain control.
↑Geopolitical Supply Disruptions
Global fertilizer supply chain disruptions, often driven by geopolitical events, can create temporary shortages. Mosaic is positioned to benefit from these situations by maintaining production.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Fertilizer Cycle Volatility
The company operates in a highly cyclical industry. Fluctuations in fertilizer prices and demand, driven by agricultural economics, create significant earnings uncertainty.
↓Rising Input Costs
High input costs for natural gas and other raw materials can compress margins. This is particularly challenging during fertilizer price downturns.
↓Production Curtailments
Mosaic has recently curtailed some phosphate production and reduced capital spending. This indicates operational adjustments to manage current market conditions and potential future demand shifts.
Customize the MOS valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for The Mosaic Company respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MOSCompany Overview
Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product. Beyond phosphates, Mosaic is a key producer and vendor of potash. This versatile mineral finds application in compound fertilizer manufacturing, animal feed formulations, industrial processes, de-icing preparations, and as a regenerant for water softeners. The company further broadens its portfolio by providing nitrogen-based crop nutrients, supplemental animal feed ingredients, and a range of supporting services. It also actively engages in the procurement and resale of phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products. Mosaic's products reach a wide array of customers, including major wholesale distributors, extensive retail chains, agricultural cooperatives, individual farmers, independent retailers, and large national accounts. Incorporated in 2004, The Mosaic Company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Financial Metrics — MOS Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$37.98
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-1.54
ROIC (TTM)
1.4%
ROE (TTM)
5.9%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
3.9x
FCF Yield
-6.78%
Debt/Equity
0.10x
MOS currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MOS?
The Mosaic Company currently generates $-1.54 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $22.69, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MOS undervalued?
MOS currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value MOS stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on The Mosaic Company: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-1.54) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Agricultural Inputs industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MOS's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.10x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MOS?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For The Mosaic Company, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Agricultural Inputs trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MOS's ROIC of 1.4% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MOS stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MOS, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 3.9x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MOS PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value MOS with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.