MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
Current Price
$342.80
Intrinsic Value
$394.05
+13.0% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Developer Mindshare and Ecosystem
MongoDB's developer-first approach fosters deep integration and loyalty. This strong community and extensive ecosystem create a sticky product that is difficult for competitors to displace.
↑Data Model Flexibility
The document model offers unparalleled flexibility for evolving application needs. This adaptability allows businesses to iterate faster and handle diverse data structures more efficiently than rigid relational databases.
↑Cloud-Native Architecture
Designed for modern cloud environments, MongoDB Atlas provides a scalable and managed database-as-a-service. This simplifies deployment and operations, attracting businesses prioritizing cloud agility.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Cloud Competition
Major cloud providers offer competing database services, potentially pressuring MongoDB's market share. Snowflake's comparison highlights the ongoing battle for cloud infrastructure dominance.
↓Insider Trading Concerns
Recent discussions around potential insider breaches raise governance questions. This could erode investor confidence and impact the company's reputation.
↓Valuation and Growth Expectations
As a momentum stock, MongoDB faces high growth expectations. Any slowdown in adoption or revenue could lead to significant stock price corrections.
Base case
MDB base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for MDB estimates an intrinsic value of about $394.05 per share, against a current price of $342.8. The model assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$394.05
Margin of safety
+13.0%
Expected annual return
+2.8%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MDB valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for MongoDB, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MDBCompany Overview
MongoDB, Inc. serves as a global provider of a versatile database platform. The company's offerings feature MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a sophisticated commercial database server designed for corporate clients, which can be deployed in cloud, on-premises, or hybrid environments. It also presents MongoDB Atlas, a fully managed, multi-cloud database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solution. For developers seeking to start with MongoDB, the company offers a free, downloadable Community Server that includes fundamental database functionalities. Beyond its core database products, MongoDB, Inc. provides professional services such as consulting and training. Founded in 2007 and based in New York, New York, the company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. before adopting the name MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013.
Financial Metrics — MDB Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$32.39
FCF/Share (TTM)
$7.46
ROIC (TTM)
-3.5%
ROE (TTM)
-1.0%
P/FCF
46.0x
EV/EBITDA
1121.6x
FCF Yield
2.17%
Debt/Equity
0.01x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MDB shows a free cash flow per share of $7.46 and a ROIC of -3.5%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 46.0x and FCF yield of 2.17% are important context metrics when evaluating MDB's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MDB?
MongoDB, Inc. currently generates $7.46 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $342.80, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MDB undervalued?
MDB trades at a P/FCF ratio of 46.0x with a free cash flow yield of 2.17%. This elevated P/FCF suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, whether MDB is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MDB stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on MongoDB, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($7.46) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Software - Infrastructure industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MDB's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.01x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MDB?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For MongoDB, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Software - Infrastructure trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MDB's ROIC of -3.5% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MDB stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MDB, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 1121.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MDB PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value MDB with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.