MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
Current Price
$362.21
Intrinsic Value
$439
+17.5% margin of safety
What Is MongoDB, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-09-11, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) at $439 per share, compared with a market price of $362.21, a margin of safety of +17.5%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $369.82 to $516.88. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Undervalued?
At $362.21, MDB trades about 17.5% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Developer Mindshare and Ecosystem
MongoDB's developer-first approach fosters deep integration and familiarity. This creates a strong ecosystem of tools, libraries, and community support, making it difficult for developers to switch.
↑Data Model Flexibility and Performance
The document model offers inherent flexibility for evolving data needs. This agility, combined with performance optimizations, provides a competitive edge for many application types.
↑Atlas Cloud Platform Lock-in
MongoDB Atlas offers a managed, integrated cloud database experience. Customers benefit from ease of use and scalability, leading to significant switching costs once embedded.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Cloud Database Competition
The battle for cloud database market share is fierce. MongoDB faces pressure from hyperscalers offering integrated, often cheaper, alternatives that may erode its customer base.
↓Potential for Licensing and Pricing Scrutiny
As MongoDB's success grows, there's a risk of increased scrutiny on its licensing models and pricing strategies. This could lead to customer pushback or regulatory attention.
↓Talent Acquisition and Retention Challenges
The demand for skilled database engineers and cloud architects is high. MongoDB must continuously attract and retain top talent to maintain its innovation and support capabilities.
Base case
MDB base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$439
Margin of safety
+17.5%
Expected annual return
+3.9%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-09-11.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MDB valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for MongoDB, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MDBCompany Overview
MongoDB, Inc. serves as a global provider of a versatile database platform. The company's offerings feature MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a sophisticated commercial database server designed for corporate clients, which can be deployed in cloud, on-premises, or hybrid environments. It also presents MongoDB Atlas, a fully managed, multi-cloud database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solution. For developers seeking to start with MongoDB, the company offers a free, downloadable Community Server that includes fundamental database functionalities. Beyond its core database products, MongoDB, Inc. provides professional services such as consulting and training. Founded in 2007 and based in New York, New York, the company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. before adopting the name MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013.
Financial Metrics — MDB Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$34.57
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.29
ROIC (TTM)
-0.4%
ROE (TTM)
2.0%
P/FCF
43.7x
EV/EBITDA
250.9x
FCF Yield
2.29%
Debt/Equity
0.01x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, MDB generates free cash flow per share of $8.29 alongside a ROIC of -0.4%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 43.7x and FCF yield of 2.29% then frame how MDB is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MDB?
MongoDB, Inc. currently generates $8.29 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $362.21, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MDB undervalued?
MDB trades at a P/FCF ratio of 43.7x with a free cash flow yield of 2.29%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether MDB is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MDB stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on MongoDB, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.29) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Software - Infrastructure industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MDB's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.01x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MDB?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For MongoDB, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Software - Infrastructure trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MDB's ROIC of -0.4% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MDB stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MDB, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 250.9x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MDB PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value MDB with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-09-11. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.