Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Construction Materials · NYSE
Current Price
$215.25
Intrinsic Value
$184.95
-16.4% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regional Cement Dominance
EXP holds strong market positions in key U.S. regions, particularly in the Southwest. This allows for pricing power and logistical advantages over competitors.
↑Integrated Operations
The company's vertical integration, from quarrying aggregates to cement production, creates cost efficiencies and supply chain control. This synergy is difficult for less integrated players to replicate.
↑Essential Infrastructure Demand
Demand for EXP's core products like cement and aggregates is tied to essential infrastructure and construction projects. This provides a baseline level of demand, even during economic downturns.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Wallboard Market Volatility
The wallboard segment is sensitive to residential construction cycles, which can be unpredictable. Recent softness highlights this cyclical exposure.
↓Environmental Regulations
The construction materials industry faces increasing environmental scrutiny and regulations. Compliance costs and potential operational disruptions pose a risk.
↓Commodity Price Fluctuations
Input costs for raw materials and energy can fluctuate significantly, impacting profitability. While EXP has some pricing power, extreme cost increases can pressure margins.
Base case
EXP base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for EXP estimates an intrinsic value of about $184.95 per share, against a current price of $215.25. The model assumes 5.7% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$184.95
Margin of safety
-16.4%
Expected annual return
-3.0%
Base case assumptions: 5.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the EXP valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Eagle Materials Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for EXPCompany Overview
Eagle Materials Inc., operating through its subsidiaries across the United States, stands as a key producer and supplier of both heavy construction and light building materials. The company's diverse operations are organized into distinct segments: Cement; Concrete and Aggregates; Gypsum Wallboard; and Recycled Paperboard. Its core activities involve the mining of limestone for the comprehensive manufacture, distribution, and sale of Portland cement, alongside the grinding and distribution of slag. Additionally, Eagle Materials extracts gypsum to produce and market gypsum wallboard, an essential product utilized for finishing interior walls and ceilings in residential, commercial, and industrial structures. The firm also engages in the production and sale of recycled paperboard, catering to the gypsum wallboard industry and other paperboard converters, while also providing containerboard and lightweight packaging grades. Furthermore, its product portfolio includes ready-mix concrete, complemented by the mining, extraction, and sale of various aggregates such as crushed stone, sand, and gravel. These fundamental materials are integral to a broad spectrum of projects, ranging from residential and commercial building construction to public infrastructure developments and the critical construction, expansion, and repair of roads and highways. Established in 1963, the company was initially known as Centex Construction Products, Inc. before rebranding to Eagle Materials Inc. in January 2004. Its corporate headquarters are located in Dallas, Texas.
Financial Metrics — EXP Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$73.75
FCF/Share (TTM)
$6.31
ROIC (TTM)
12.2%
ROE (TTM)
28.3%
P/FCF
33.7x
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
FCF Yield
2.96%
Debt/Equity
1.22x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, EXP shows a free cash flow per share of $6.31 and a ROIC of 12.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 33.7x and FCF yield of 2.96% are important context metrics when evaluating EXP's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of EXP?
Eagle Materials Inc. currently generates $6.31 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $215.25, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is EXP undervalued?
EXP trades at a P/FCF ratio of 33.7x with a free cash flow yield of 2.96%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether EXP is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value EXP stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Eagle Materials Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($6.31) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Construction Materials industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting EXP's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.22x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to EXP?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Eagle Materials Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Construction Materials trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. EXP's ROIC of 12.2% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect EXP stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For EXP, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.22x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 13.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See EXP PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value EXP with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.