当前价格
$107.15
市盈率(TTM)
38.7x
内在价值
$118.83
安全边际 +9.8%
截至 2026-09-11,对 Walmart Inc.(WMT)每股收益 $2.78 套用 38.5x 的盈利倍数,得出每股公允价值估算约 $118.83,当前股价为 $107.15。
基于盈利倍数的公允价值对所选倍数很敏感。在敏感性网格上,估算区间为 $101.39 至 $138.51。这是锚定盈利的相对估算,并非事实定论。如需基于现金流的视角,请参阅 DCF 页面的内在价值估算。
PE 模型如何运作 · 用 PE 模式重新计算 · WMT 内在价值(DCF 视角)
在 $107.15 的价格下,WMT 的交易价比其基于 PE 的公允价值估算低约 9.8%,相对其盈利能力有一定折让,但还不足以直接称其便宜。
竞争护城河
↑规模经济优势
沃尔玛庞大的采购量和分销网络使其能够获得极低的商品成本,并以更低的价格销售商品,形成价格优势。这种规模效应也体现在其高效的供应链管理上。
↑品牌忠诚度与认知
沃尔玛作为全球最大的零售商,拥有极高的品牌知名度和消费者信任度。消费者普遍认为沃尔玛提供物美价廉的商品,这种认知有助于维持稳定的客流量和销售额。
↑全渠道整合能力
沃尔玛在实体店和电商领域都进行了大量投资,成功地将线上线下业务整合。消费者可以方便地在线购物、到店取货或退货,这种无缝的购物体验增强了客户粘性。
投资风险
↓供应链中断风险
作为一家全球性企业,沃尔玛的供应链容易受到地缘政治、自然灾害或疫情等因素的影响,可能导致商品短缺和成本上升。
↓消费者偏好变化
消费者对可持续性、健康食品和个性化购物体验的需求日益增长。如果沃尔玛不能及时适应这些变化,可能会失去部分市场份额。
↓监管和法律风险
沃尔玛作为大型零售商,可能面临反垄断调查、劳动法诉讼或数据隐私相关的监管压力,这些都可能对其运营和声誉造成负面影响。
基准情形
内在价值
$118.83
安全边际
+9.8%
预期年化收益
+2.1%
基准情形假设:盈利年增长率 9.6%、目标 P/E 倍数 38.54x、折现率 10%、预测 5 年。数据截至 2026-09-11。
本基准情形采用默认假设,不构成投资建议。当目标 PE 或盈利增长率变化时,公允价值会显著改变。打开计算器可设置你自己的假设,并查看完整的敏感性区间。
Walmart Inc., established in 1945 and based in Bentonville, Arkansas, operates as a global retail powerhouse, having officially adopted its current name in February 2018, formerly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. The company's diverse operations, encompassing retail, wholesale, and e-commerce, are managed across three primary divisions: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. Its extensive physical presence includes a variety of store formats such as supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, membership-only warehouse clubs (like Sam's Club), cash-and-carry outlets, and discount stores, primarily operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market banners. Digitally, the company engages customers through numerous e-commerce platforms, including walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, and PhonePe, as well as via dedicated mobile applications. Walmart offers an exceptionally broad range of products and services. Its inventory covers groceries and daily consumables, such as dairy, meats, baked goods, deli items, fresh produce, various packaged foods (dry, chilled, or frozen), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, floral items, snacks, candies, health and beauty aids, paper products, laundry and home care essentials, baby care, and pet supplies, alongside fuel and tobacco. Furthermore, it features a comprehensive health and wellness segment, providing pharmacy, optical, and hearing services, over-the-counter medications, and other medical products. For home and personal needs, shoppers can find items ranging from home improvement goods, outdoor living products, gardening supplies, furniture, apparel, and jewelry, to tools, power equipment, housewares, toys, seasonal items, mattresses, and automotive services like tire and battery centers. The electronics department includes consumer electronics, accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Beyond merchandise, Walmart provides a suite of financial services. These include digital payment platforms, money transfer options, bill payment services, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access solutions, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access programs. The company also markets several proprietary brands, notably Allswell, Athletic Works, Equate, and Free Assembly.
市盈率(TTM)
38.7x
PEG 比率
9.35
盈利收益率
2.59%
ROE (TTM)
22.7%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$92.51
股息率
0.91%
Debt/Equity
0.75x
WMT 的过去 12 个月市盈率反映投资者为 Walmart Inc. 每一美元收益所支付的价格。该指标在与Discount Stores同类公司和公司自身历史区间对比时最有意义。
WMT 的市盈率 38.7x 结合 PEG 比率 9.35 提供了增长调整后的视角。PEG 高于 2.0 表明市盈率相对于盈利增速偏高。注意 PE 估值最适合盈利稳定的成熟公司——对于高增长或周期性Discount Stores,DCF 分析可能更合适。
对 Walmart Inc. 使用 PE 估值的步骤:(1) 将当前市盈率 (38.7x)与Discount Stores中位数对比评估相对定价,(2) 查看 PEG 比率 (9.35)以调整增长预期,(3) 参考 5 年 PE 历史区间判断当前位置,(4) 用目标 PE 乘以前瞻 EPS 估算公允价值。这种相对估值方法与 DCF 的绝对估值互为补充。
WMT 的 PEG 比率为 9.35,由市盈率(38.7x)除以预期盈利增速计算。PEG 高于 2.0 意味着市盈率相对于预期盈利增速偏高。注意 PEG 的准确性取决于增长预期的可靠性。
PE 市盈率给出快速的相对定价——WMT 相对于Discount Stores同类的估值水平。DCF 基于预期自由现金流提供绝对价值。对于 WMT,ROE 达到 22.7%,两种方法都值得使用——PE 做市场对比,DCF 验证基本面是否支撑当前价格。两种方法各有盲区:PE 忽略了资本结构和现金流质量,DCF 则对增长率和折现率假设非常敏感。
PE 与 DCF 使用不同的方法和假设为 WMT 估值,因此两者的结论可能不同。可对比 DCF 内在价值。
价格截至 2026-09-11。 财务数据来自 Financial Modeling Prep(过去 12 个月)· 估值方法论由 Charlie Wang 提供。
这是估计值,不构成投资建议。