Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Construction Materials · NYSE
Current Price
$286.47
Intrinsic Value
$296.72
+3.5% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Geographically Protected Assets
VMC's quarries are irreplaceable, geographically protected assets. This limits competition and provides a natural barrier to entry for new players in key markets.
↑Scale and Logistics Network
As the largest producer of construction aggregates, VMC benefits from significant economies of scale. Its extensive logistics network ensures efficient delivery, a critical factor in the construction industry.
↑Essential Product Demand
Aggregates are fundamental to infrastructure and construction. VMC's products are essential, creating consistent demand driven by population growth and development needs.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Cyclical Construction Demand
The construction industry is inherently cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Reduced infrastructure spending or housing market slowdowns can significantly impact VMC's sales volumes.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Hurdles
Opening new quarries or expanding existing ones faces significant regulatory and environmental scrutiny. Permitting delays or rejections can hinder growth and increase operational costs.
↓Inflationary Cost Pressures
Rising fuel, energy, and labor costs can erode profit margins. While VMC can pass some costs on, sustained inflation can pressure its pricing power and profitability.
Base case
VMC base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for VMC estimates an intrinsic value of about $296.72 per share, against a current price of $286.47. The model assumes 9.7% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$296.72
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Expected annual return
+0.7%
Base case assumptions: 9.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the VMC valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Vulcan Materials Company respond.
Open DCF Calculator for VMCCompany Overview
Vulcan Materials Company, alongside its affiliated entities, stands as a prominent producer and distributor of construction aggregates, primarily operating within the United States. The company's activities are organized into four distinct divisions: Aggregates, Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium. The Aggregates division focuses on providing essential materials like crushed stone, sand, gravel, and other foundational aggregates, along with related services. These products are vital for building and maintaining highways, public infrastructure, residential properties, and various commercial, industrial, and other non-residential structures. Through its Asphalt Mix segment, the firm furnishes asphalt mixture to locations in Alabama, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas, additionally performing asphalt paving work in Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas. The Concrete segment supplies ready-mixed concrete to customers in California, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Washington D.C. Lastly, the Calcium division is responsible for mining, manufacturing, and marketing calcium products for use in animal feed, plastics, and water treatment industries. Established in 1909, the corporation, initially known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. before its name change, is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Financial Metrics — VMC Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$61.04
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.46
ROIC (TTM)
8.3%
ROE (TTM)
13.1%
P/FCF
33.3x
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
FCF Yield
3.00%
Debt/Equity
0.60x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, VMC shows a free cash flow per share of $8.46 and a ROIC of 8.3%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 33.3x and FCF yield of 3.00% are important context metrics when evaluating VMC's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of VMC?
Vulcan Materials Company currently generates $8.46 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $286.47, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is VMC undervalued?
VMC trades at a P/FCF ratio of 33.3x with a free cash flow yield of 3.00%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether VMC is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value VMC stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Vulcan Materials Company: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.46) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Construction Materials industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting VMC's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.60x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to VMC?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Vulcan Materials Company, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Construction Materials trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. VMC's ROIC of 8.3% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect VMC stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For VMC, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 16.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See VMC PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value VMC with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.