Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$67.62
Intrinsic Value
$65.13
-3.8% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Global Fertilizer Production Scale
Nutrien's massive production capacity for potash and nitrogen fertilizers provides significant economies of scale. This scale allows for cost advantages and a strong position in supplying essential agricultural inputs globally.
↑Integrated Retail Network
Its extensive retail network offers direct access to farmers, providing a crucial distribution channel. This proximity fosters customer loyalty and allows for tailored product and service offerings.
↑Essential Product Demand
Fertilizers are fundamental to global food production, creating consistent demand regardless of economic cycles. This inherent necessity underpins Nutrien's revenue stability.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Volatile Input Costs
Fluctuations in natural gas and other raw material prices can significantly impact Nutrien's production costs. This volatility can compress profit margins if not effectively managed or passed on.
↓Supply Chain Tightness
Global supply chain disruptions can affect the availability and cost of raw materials and finished products. This can hinder Nutrien's ability to meet demand and manage inventory efficiently.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny
The agricultural input industry faces increasing environmental regulations and public scrutiny. Changes in policies related to fertilizer use or production could impact operations and costs.
Base case
NTR base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for NTR estimates an intrinsic value of about $65.13 per share, against a current price of $67.62. The model assumes 1.6% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 15x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$65.13
Margin of safety
-3.8%
Expected annual return
-0.7%
Base case assumptions: 1.6% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 15x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the NTR valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Nutrien Ltd. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for NTRCompany Overview
Nutrien Ltd., a company established in 2017 and based in Saskatoon, Canada, functions as a principal supplier of essential agricultural resources and associated services. The firm furnishes vital crop inputs, including various fertilizer compounds like potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate, in addition to offering financial solutions to its clientele. Its operations involve the extensive distribution of crop-related products such as nutrients, protection agents, seeds, and general merchandise. This is facilitated through a vast network of nearly 2,000 retail establishments situated across the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. Beyond its retail footprint, Nutrien also engages directly with agricultural producers, delivering personalized services through its numerous farm centers located throughout North America, South America, and Australia.
Financial Metrics — NTR Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$57.83
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.64
ROIC (TTM)
6.6%
ROE (TTM)
9.5%
P/FCF
14.6x
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
FCF Yield
6.86%
Debt/Equity
0.55x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, NTR shows a free cash flow per share of $4.64 and a ROIC of 6.6%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 14.6x and FCF yield of 6.86% are important context metrics when evaluating NTR's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of NTR?
Nutrien Ltd. currently generates $4.64 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $67.62, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is NTR undervalued?
NTR trades at a P/FCF ratio of 14.6x with a free cash flow yield of 6.86%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether NTR is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value NTR stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Nutrien Ltd.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.64) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Agricultural Inputs industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting NTR's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.55x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to NTR?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Nutrien Ltd., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Agricultural Inputs trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. NTR's ROIC of 6.6% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect NTR stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For NTR, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 7.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See NTR PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value NTR with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.