Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Gold · NYSE
Current Price
$100.23
Intrinsic Value
$139.96
+28.4% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast, High-Quality Reserves
Newmont possesses extensive, long-life gold reserves, providing a significant competitive advantage. This deep resource base underpins future production and profitability.
↑Operational Scale and Expertise
As the world's largest gold miner, Newmont benefits from economies of scale and deep operational expertise. This allows for efficient extraction and processing of gold.
↑Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Recent performance highlights exceptional free cash flow, enabling aggressive capital allocation. This financial strength supports shareholder returns and strategic investments.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Gold prices are inherently volatile, directly impacting Newmont's revenue and profitability. Global economic uncertainty can exacerbate these price swings.
↓Operational Challenges
Despite strong cash flow, the company has faced operational challenges. These can disrupt production and increase costs, affecting output.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Hurdles
Mining operations are subject to stringent regulations and environmental scrutiny. Changes in policy or unforeseen environmental issues can lead to significant costs and delays.
Base case
NEM base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for NEM estimates an intrinsic value of about $139.96 per share, against a current price of $100.23. The model assumes 6.4% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 9x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$139.96
Margin of safety
+28.4%
Expected annual return
+6.9%
Base case assumptions: 6.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 9x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the NEM valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Newmont Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for NEMCompany Overview
Newmont Corporation is primarily involved in the mining and exploration of gold resources. Additionally, the company undertakes prospecting for other base and precious metals, including copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Its operations and assets are geographically widespread, located across various countries such as the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of the close of 2021 (December 31st), Newmont reported substantial proven and probable gold reserves, totaling 92.8 million ounces, and managed a vast land portfolio covering 62,800 square kilometers. Founded in 1916, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Denver, Colorado.
Financial Metrics — NEM Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$22.50
FCF/Share (TTM)
$11.31
ROIC (TTM)
15.1%
ROE (TTM)
25.2%
P/FCF
8.7x
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
FCF Yield
11.47%
Debt/Equity
0.16x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, NEM shows a free cash flow per share of $11.31 and a ROIC of 15.1%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 8.7x and FCF yield of 11.47% are important context metrics when evaluating NEM's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of NEM?
Newmont Corporation currently generates $11.31 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $100.23, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is NEM undervalued?
NEM trades at a P/FCF ratio of 8.7x with a free cash flow yield of 11.47%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether NEM is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value NEM stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Newmont Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($11.31) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Gold industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting NEM's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.16x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to NEM?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Newmont Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Gold trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. NEM's ROIC of 15.1% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect NEM stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For NEM, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 6.1x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See NEM PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value NEM with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.