Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$23.03
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on The Mosaic Company with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
ROIC (TTM)
4.0%
ROE (TTM)
10.0%
FCF Yield
-7.30%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MOS shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 4.0%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of -7.30% are important context metrics when evaluating MOS's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of MOS depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether MOS is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $23.03. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on The Mosaic Company: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Agricultural Inputs industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MOS's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For The Mosaic Company, this means projecting how much free cash flow the Agricultural Inputs will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MOS's ROIC of 4.0% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MOS, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
