Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Gold · NYSE
Current Price
$25.58
Intrinsic Value
$33.16
+22.9% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Global Asset Diversification
Kinross operates mines across multiple continents, reducing reliance on any single jurisdiction. This geographic spread mitigates country-specific political or operational risks.
↑Long-Life Reserves
The company possesses significant proven and probable gold reserves. These long-life assets provide a predictable revenue stream and operational runway for years to come.
↑Sustainability Focus
Kinross's commitment to sustainability, evidenced by its 2025 report, can foster stronger community relations and government support. This can lead to smoother operations and reduced regulatory hurdles.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Gold prices are inherently volatile and can significantly impact Kinross's revenue and profitability. External market forces are beyond the company's direct control.
↓Operational and Geological Risks
Mining operations face inherent risks from geological complexities, equipment failures, and potential accidents. These can lead to production disruptions and increased costs.
↓Regulatory and Permitting Challenges
Kinross operates in diverse regulatory environments, facing potential changes in mining laws, environmental regulations, and permitting delays. These can impact project timelines and costs.
Base case
KGC base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for KGC estimates an intrinsic value of about $33.16 per share, against a current price of $25.58. The model assumes 6.6% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 10x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$33.16
Margin of safety
+22.9%
Expected annual return
+5.3%
Base case assumptions: 6.6% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 10x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the KGC valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Kinross Gold Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for KGCCompany Overview
Kinross Gold Corporation, along with its various affiliates, is dedicated to acquiring, exploring, and developing gold deposits primarily across regions such as the United States, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. Beyond these core operations, the company also handles the mining and processing of gold-bearing ores, conducts rehabilitation of former gold mining sites, and produces and sells silver. Kinross Gold Corporation was established in 1993 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Toronto, Canada.
Financial Metrics — KGC Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$6.62
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.51
ROIC (TTM)
24.3%
ROE (TTM)
34.5%
P/FCF
10.1x
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
FCF Yield
9.87%
Debt/Equity
0.08x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, KGC shows a free cash flow per share of $2.51 and a ROIC of 24.3%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 10.1x and FCF yield of 9.87% are important context metrics when evaluating KGC's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of KGC?
Kinross Gold Corporation currently generates $2.51 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $25.58, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is KGC undervalued?
KGC trades at a P/FCF ratio of 10.1x with a free cash flow yield of 9.87%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether KGC is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value KGC stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Kinross Gold Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.51) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Gold industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting KGC's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.08x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to KGC?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Kinross Gold Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Gold trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. KGC's ROIC of 24.3% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect KGC stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For KGC, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 5.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See KGC PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value KGC with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.