Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · NYSE
Current Price
$154.28
Intrinsic Value
$164.97
+6.5% margin of safety
What Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) at $164.97 per share, compared with a market price of $154.28, a margin of safety of +6.5%. The base case assumes 6.2% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $132.88 to $201.89. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Undervalued?
At $154.28, ICE trades about 6.5% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Network Effects in Trading Platforms
ICE's exchanges benefit from strong network effects. More participants attract more participants, increasing liquidity and making the platform more valuable for everyone.
↑Data and Analytics Dominance
ICE's vast repository of market data and sophisticated analytics tools create high switching costs for clients. This data is crucial for trading and risk management decisions.
↑Regulatory Compliance and Infrastructure
ICE provides critical infrastructure for regulated markets. The complexity and cost of replicating this infrastructure create a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Cybersecurity Threats
As a critical financial infrastructure provider, ICE is a prime target for cyberattacks. A successful breach could disrupt operations and damage its reputation.
↓Geopolitical and Economic Instability
Global economic downturns or geopolitical conflicts can significantly impact trading volumes and market volatility. This can lead to reduced revenue for ICE.
↓Competition from Alternative Trading Venues
While ICE has strong moats, new and innovative trading platforms could emerge. These could offer specialized services or lower costs, attracting some market share.
Base case
ICE base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$164.97
Margin of safety
+6.5%
Expected annual return
+1.3%
Base case assumptions: 6.2% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 19x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ICE valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ICECompany Overview
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) manages a global network of regulated financial venues, encompassing exchanges, clearing houses, and listing platforms. These operations serve diverse markets, including commodities, financial instruments, fixed income products, and equities, with a geographical footprint spanning key financial centers such as the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada. The company's business is segmented into three core areas: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. Within its Exchanges segment, ICE oversees a robust network comprising 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses. These extensive marketplaces enable the listing, trading, and clearing of a wide spectrum of derivatives contracts and financial securities. This includes futures and options across diverse sectors such as energy, agriculture, metals, financials, and equities, in addition to providing critical listing, market data, and connectivity solutions. The Fixed Income and Data Services division provides comprehensive analytics and execution services for fixed income products, manages Credit Default Swap (CDS) clearing, and offers multi-asset class data and network solutions. Furthermore, its Mortgage Technology segment delivers an advanced, proprietary platform designed for residential mortgage origination. This division also provides closing solutions that streamline connections across the mortgage supply chain and facilitate secure information exchange, alongside data analytics and "Data as a Service" offerings for lenders to access vital origination insights. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. was established in 2000 and maintains its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
Financial Metrics — ICE Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$23.80
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.08
ROIC (TTM)
7.6%
ROE (TTM)
13.8%
P/FCF
19.1x
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
FCF Yield
5.22%
Debt/Equity
0.69x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, ICE generates free cash flow per share of $8.08 alongside a ROIC of 7.6%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 19.1x and FCF yield of 5.22% then frame how ICE is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ICE?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. currently generates $8.08 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $154.28, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ICE undervalued?
ICE trades at a P/FCF ratio of 19.1x with a free cash flow yield of 5.22%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether ICE is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ICE stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.08) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ICE's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.69x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ICE?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ICE's ROIC of 7.6% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect ICE stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ICE, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 16.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ICE PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Financial Services valuationsDCF and P/E value ICE with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.