Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Construction Materials · NYSE
Current Price
$209.91
Intrinsic Value
$159.02
-32.0% margin of safety
What Is Eagle Materials Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) at $159.02 per share, compared with a market price of $209.91, a margin of safety of -32.0%. The base case assumes 2.3% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $133.02 to $188.71. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Undervalued?
At the current price of $209.91, EXP trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regional Cement Dominance
EXP holds strong market positions in key U.S. regions, particularly the Southwest. This allows for pricing power and logistical advantages over distant competitors.
↑Integrated Operations
The company's vertical integration, from quarrying to cement production and distribution, creates cost efficiencies and supply chain control.
↑High Capital Intensity Barrier
Establishing new cement and aggregate facilities requires substantial capital investment, deterring new entrants and protecting existing players.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Environmental Regulations
The cement industry faces increasing scrutiny and potential costs related to emissions and environmental compliance, which could impact profitability.
↓Raw Material Availability
Access to high-quality limestone and other raw materials is crucial. Depletion or increased extraction costs could pose a challenge.
↓Competition from Substitutes
While cement is dominant, alternative building materials or technologies could emerge, potentially reducing long-term demand.
Base case
EXP base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$159.02
Margin of safety
-32.0%
Expected annual return
-5.4%
Base case assumptions: 2.3% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the EXP valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Eagle Materials Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for EXPCompany Overview
Eagle Materials Inc., operating through its subsidiaries across the United States, stands as a key producer and supplier of both heavy construction and light building materials. The company's diverse operations are organized into distinct segments: Cement; Concrete and Aggregates; Gypsum Wallboard; and Recycled Paperboard. Its core activities involve the mining of limestone for the comprehensive manufacture, distribution, and sale of Portland cement, alongside the grinding and distribution of slag. Additionally, Eagle Materials extracts gypsum to produce and market gypsum wallboard, an essential product utilized for finishing interior walls and ceilings in residential, commercial, and industrial structures. The firm also engages in the production and sale of recycled paperboard, catering to the gypsum wallboard industry and other paperboard converters, while also providing containerboard and lightweight packaging grades. Furthermore, its product portfolio includes ready-mix concrete, complemented by the mining, extraction, and sale of various aggregates such as crushed stone, sand, and gravel. These fundamental materials are integral to a broad spectrum of projects, ranging from residential and commercial building construction to public infrastructure developments and the critical construction, expansion, and repair of roads and highways. Established in 1963, the company was initially known as Centex Construction Products, Inc. before rebranding to Eagle Materials Inc. in January 2004. Its corporate headquarters are located in Dallas, Texas.
Financial Metrics — EXP Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$75.15
FCF/Share (TTM)
$6.38
ROIC (TTM)
9.9%
ROE (TTM)
26.9%
P/FCF
32.8x
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
FCF Yield
3.04%
Debt/Equity
1.01x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, EXP generates free cash flow per share of $6.38 alongside a ROIC of 9.9%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 32.8x and FCF yield of 3.04% then frame how EXP is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of EXP?
Eagle Materials Inc. currently generates $6.38 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $209.91, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is EXP undervalued?
EXP trades at a P/FCF ratio of 32.8x with a free cash flow yield of 3.04%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether EXP is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value EXP stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Eagle Materials Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($6.38) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Construction Materials industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting EXP's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.01x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to EXP?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Eagle Materials Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Construction Materials trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. EXP's ROIC of 9.9% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect EXP stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For EXP, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 14.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See EXP PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value EXP with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.