Cigna Corporation (CI) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Medical - Healthcare Plans · NYSE
Current Price
$298.00
Intrinsic Value
$418.71
+28.8% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Scale and Network Effects
Cigna's large member base and extensive provider network create significant barriers to entry. This scale allows for better negotiation power with healthcare providers and employers.
↑Brand Recognition and Trust
As a long-standing health insurer, Cigna benefits from established brand recognition and a degree of trust among consumers and employers. This reputation is hard for new entrants to replicate.
↑Data Analytics Capabilities
Cigna leverages sophisticated data analytics to manage costs, personalize member experiences, and identify health trends. This proprietary knowledge provides a competitive edge.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory and Policy Changes
Government regulations and healthcare policy shifts can significantly impact Cigna's business model and profitability. Changes in coverage mandates or reimbursement rates pose ongoing risks.
↓Rising Healthcare Costs
Persistent increases in medical costs, even with softer trends noted recently, can erode profit margins if not effectively managed through pricing and cost containment strategies.
↓Drug Cost Management
The decision to stop covering GLP-1 weight loss drugs for its own employees highlights the challenge of managing high-cost, innovative treatments. This could lead to member dissatisfaction or pressure from employers.
Base case
CI base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for CI estimates an intrinsic value of about $418.71 per share, against a current price of $298. The model assumes 9.1% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 10x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$418.71
Margin of safety
+28.8%
Expected annual return
+7.0%
Base case assumptions: 9.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 10x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CI valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Cigna Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CICompany Overview
Cigna Group, established in 1792 and headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut, provides insurance products and related services across the United States. The company operates through two primary segments. Its Evernorth division offers a comprehensive array of coordinated and specialized health solutions, including pharmacy services, benefits administration, care management and delivery, and advanced intelligence solutions. These offerings cater to a diverse clientele, such as health plans, employers, government entities, and healthcare providers. Meanwhile, the Cigna Healthcare segment delivers an extensive portfolio of products and services, encompassing medical, pharmaceutical, behavioral health, dental, vision, and health advocacy programs for both insured and self-insured customers. This segment also provides Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicare Part D plans specifically for seniors, in addition to individual health insurance options available on and off public exchanges. Globally, Cigna Healthcare extends international health coverage and benefits to mobile professionals and employees of multinational organizations. Furthermore, the company issues permanent insurance contracts to corporations, designed to cover the lives of specific employees for funding future benefit obligations. Cigna distributes its various offerings through insurance brokers and consultants, direct sales channels to employers, unions, and individuals, and via both private and public exchanges.
Financial Metrics — CI Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$1058.67
FCF/Share (TTM)
$29.18
ROIC (TTM)
7.6%
ROE (TTM)
15.2%
P/FCF
10.3x
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
FCF Yield
9.72%
Debt/Equity
0.73x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, CI shows a free cash flow per share of $29.18 and a ROIC of 7.6%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 10.3x and FCF yield of 9.72% are important context metrics when evaluating CI's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CI?
Cigna Corporation currently generates $29.18 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $298.00, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CI undervalued?
CI trades at a P/FCF ratio of 10.3x with a free cash flow yield of 9.72%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether CI is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value CI stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Cigna Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($29.18) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Medical - Healthcare Plans industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CI's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.73x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CI?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Cigna Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Medical - Healthcare Plans trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CI's ROIC of 7.6% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect CI stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CI, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 8.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CI PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Healthcare valuationsDCF and P/E value CI with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.